...only those who risk going too far, can possibly find out how far one can go.!
-T.S.Elliot

19 September 2007

How about our farming?

It has been some time since I last read about anything spectacular about Agriculture in this country..

"Economic Times" usually does the round around the end of summer to predict the rainfalls and hence the Farm Produce. Politicians keep crying foul on the need to improve the condition of Indian Agricultural conditions and its "sustainability"...and then there are suicides...and the figures so easily seem to fluctuating as if it were an exchange controlled scrip price.

Is Agriculture as a sector in India headed towards something gloomier than it is now?

Or is it just a phase, where most of us seem to have taken for granted that the "food grains" will be kept supplied irrespective of how much attention we paid to it as a country? Only to wake up one day, when the import bill would have become over the roof?

There was a discussion posted on apnirai.com suggesting Agriculture being India's key to growth and this piece of writing is basically in response to the same. Can India's "agriculture" be treated at par with IT and Manufacturing as one of the pillars of our GDP?

Most bearcats in public life talk only about Self-Sufficiency when it comes to the Agri Industry as such. Terming the industry as a potential "out performer" for this country would seem as irrelevant and vague as talking about Indians learning to play baseball... For those who think India should look up to on "Agriculture" to boost and become a sector as IT and Services to be a dominant part of our GDP, please have a look ..

India and Brazil have much in common, (except the people off course) and hence are comparable at most times. China is perhaps the next tall boy of Global Economy while the US still remains as on date the largest one to Benchmark.

  • India's share of Agriculture in our GDP interestingly is the highest amongst the four. Standing at 18.3% its contribution is significant. Well that's sometimes obvious, since we need to feed a 6th of the World's population. And we are traditionally an Agricultural dependant Economy (off course not anymore!)

  • China has a higher produce (nearly double!) to feed another 6th, and off course end up having a huge surplus and command a cool 3.5% of World Agricultural Export Trade.

  • US has a marginal 1% of its GDP as Agricultural Produce and is almost equal to that of India's Produce, which gives you an idea how big the US economy is.

  • The US ends up commanding an alarming 10% of World Agricultural Trade. Even though there are huge imports into US, but that shows how much balance of trade the US maintains.

  • We have given up most land for Agri Purpose, which is as high as 60%, the highest amongst the comparison countries.

  • Off course, we hardly export Agri Produce, least amongst the competition.

  • We have an alarming lowest Per Capita Agricultural Produce, being at 1/4th of the US!! 1/3rd of Brazil!! ½ of China!! That’s our efficiency for you!

India’s key is to reach Self Sufficiency, and then begin to target Agriculture as a significant GDP component again. Rising population is keeping the pressure on the demand, while huge development projects meaning giving away land for Infrastructure.
And off course, our systems ensure huge surplus being wasted in Warehouses further diminishes hope of making money on the food we produce.

We seriously getting nowhere with 3% increase in Agri Produce while sustaining a whopping 2.13% increase in population!!

For all those who think, India has a good outlook for Agriculture being a dominant part of our booming economy, think again!

9 comments:

La Pensive said...

Wow! That's really informative..
Never thought the scenario was this grim..

Nilesh Gurnani said...

yup, strange figures,,! I was amazed myself after compiling the information..!

Ravi Gurnani said...

excellent analysis... i think the key to indian agriculture lies in another green revolution.. but the white elephant is the govt. controlled distribution system.. the figures showing the loss of produce in the ET the other day was actually criminal!!

Nilesh Gurnani said...

Yeah, seems like this country always needs a stick, to get going every now and then! its sad, after the economy growing at an breathtaking 9%, and stil the systems is sleeping on the cozy numbers...

ashwintayade said...

excellent write up Nilesh......intelligent talk with correct figures.

xelways said...

Thats really informative and shocking to know! But I guess, as long as, the Indian governance doesn't get any better, we can't expect much progress on any front (well expect IT as thats something going great irrespective of government support).

Nilesh Gurnani said...

yeah, the figures are startling...while compiling, i didnt have a clue, that it would be so bad,,,,
about IT, yes, Indians have the best chance of doing it there, coz IT is still a service industry,,,,the real test will come, when we become a full fledged "IT Creation" hub...

Anonymous said...

I don't have exact figures and stats but we are no more restricted a service industry. Indian software giants are diving into development as well as research work these days. One interesting thing I got to know recently is that Infosys (one of the largest software service company) in India is is changing its role from service provider to service vendor i.e. Infosys is getting work from USA, Europe and outsourcing it to other developing countries (even the countries near to those outsourcing the work to India). It seems there are mainly two reasons - countries the work is getting outsourced to provide better appropriate skill set (e.g. local languages expertise) and another reason being that companies in India want to focus more on development and research work. Its encouraging to know that India is getting beyond call centers now a days :-)

Nilesh Gurnani said...

as for core "software" development, the figures are again strange and these are authenticated again.
India has 3.5-4% market share in world market share for Software Developmen!!
But yes, the effort is on, and there is change coming in..

It will interesting to see how the Govt Policy gets altered in time towards this sector..it is a "gold mine" if handled carefully..
We dont want Govt to repeat another "Intel" story here...due to the beauracratic delays and lack of policy, Intel has decided to shift its SemiConductor manufacturing plant to China!
Thats for your "starters" now..hope the main course is better..