World War - III

I recall, way back in mid 1990’s when I was still a school-going one, the predictions of one Clairvoyant called Nostradamus! His well publicized predictions were often the talks in the lunch breaks over the benches in the classroom.
The most popular being course about the “3rd Edition” of the World War!
Redundant to say, it continues to be speculated when…

To follow it up years later, I came across a wonderful caption;
“…far away from what the seers could ever see, Religion has emerged over centuries not just as a way of life, but perhaps the ONLY reason to fight…”

Indeed nothing else, but religious fanatics’ would eventually lead us to that imminent WW-3!

However, there seems to be a few factors which could delay the manifestation of Nostradamus’s Prophecy by another decade by a minimum!

--Economically weak Pakistan.
Pakistan to me, like many others, would be the epicenter of the next major violent catastrophe. A safe haven for extremists, neighbor “enemy” states, excessive Taliban influence and historic jehadi movement are few major factors amongst many others.

However, Pakistan knows for sure that in any eventuality they would be bombarded back to Stone-age like Afghanistan is. Else why Pakistan would be only sponsoring a “non-state” terrorism and not a full scale war with India?

Also, Pakistan’s crumbling economy. All their “unofficial” money today comes from
• Possible Arrangement with Opium traders from Afghanistan through the ISI.
• Probable Backend support from sympathetic Arab world.
• Well established network of the under-world.

The official money being dependent on Foreign aid from US/IMF/World Bank. Trade and commerce were never heard of, while the economy more or less remains self-contained and cross-border trade is nothing to boast about.

The pressure remains on Pakistani administration (sometimes democratic but largely military) to avoid a full scale confrontation as they WERE NEVER and WILL NEVER be ready for it economically. The rhetoric will continue, but to the point of never really wanting to go to war.
No matter how much the Pakistan administration openly romances China, theirs is only a “courtship” and not a “marriage”. China needs to take a stance in Asia contrary to the Indo-American Status quo and hence the “affair”.
I doubt with all my intellect that China would EVER sponsor a terrorist State!

--Crisis ridden US.
I read a wonderful reference in article;
“…Few months before the 9/11 tragedy, China was awarded the 2008 Olympics. In the next 7 years, China transformed from being an Asian Dragon to being a World Power in terms of superior infrastructure, manufacturing and phenomenal economic growth. While the US engaged in the bloody battlefields of Afghanistan and then Iraq…”
Interestingly its China who is the single largest American Govt Securities holder! In other words, China has more Foreign Exchange Reserves in US$ than the US itself!

America went on spending in Wars, China in development. Almost a decade later, US is facing its deepest recession, while China is still just about holding up in the current times.

The adventures which were infamously dubbed as the “shock and awe” approach to the enemy have in the EXACT same way to their exchequer! “Shock and Awe” on the US Treasury!
Even though the Bush administration has managed to secure the “Oil of Iraq”, the scale to which the billions were drained, there is little cheer.

The United States has completely shifted its focus "internally". Jobs, Economy, Homes, Wall Street!
When your house isn’t in order, you cannot really fly down seven seas to mess into enemies home.
Also, geographically, USA is away from the epic-centre. The American population, at least hitherto is immune to large scale damage.

Obama administration also could be the perfect opportunity for the American Foreign Policy to deviate from its for past. Under the guise of failed republicans and using the Charm of their new Mr. President, I am pretty much certain the US would rush into burying many a failed policies. Read: Afghanistan, Iraq, Indonesia, China, Tibet, and Russia and Pakistan! The Arabs!

US has NO TIME and resources engage into war at least till the recession is truly over. And you bet, they would overtly turn down any hostile attempt by the Taliban or Chinese or even Russian mischiefs to pumping Pakistan!

--Emergence of Asian Powers to World Affairs.
With the advent of India and China not just as Asian Giants, but as World Pillars in economic growth the Global Politics is about to go through a sea-change!
BRIC countries will increasing their say on major World issues like the Global Warming, War on Terror, Protectionist Regime, and Capital Market Accountability.
Dalal Street and Shanghai would probably be next to Nasdaq as indicators of World Economy.

Europe has scars too deep from the first 2 wars. UK probably is the only country hit by terrorism largely, apart from mild attacks in Spain and other places.
They would by an large tip-toe the US on foreign policy on Military decisions.

Also the Arab World wouldn’t want to engage itself and are largely neutral to Indo-Pak confrontation.

Russia is no longer a major economic or a political power, and will need time to recover from lost glory. The recent Oil drop and successive Record Currency corrections don't help its case either.

All of these adds to the Stability!

---Indian Democracy.
There isn’t a single Indian leader I see who really has it to bite the bullet of war, should in case the proxy war of Pakistan really push India to the limits. At best what our leadership has shown us, that they run to the International Community, complain and create a huge hue and cry and use what they now call "Coercive Diplomacy". I wouldn't it is just only the Congress, but even the BJP dared not cross the LOC, while the Kargil infiltration to seek that so called "International Accolades". Just look at Israel, and for that matter Sri-Lanka!

Use a thorn to remove a thorn!

The realistic Prime Ministerial Candidates for the next elections: Man Mohan Singh, L.K.Advani & Mayawati. None of them would ever press hard for full scale military operation. Advani himself won’t ever commit to attack first, leave alone our Finance PM or Maywati, if she pulls off a mother of all surprises by become the PM.

The year 2014 Elections would be the year of Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi!

If there is anybody in the world, Pakistan should fear, it is the BJP’s Gujrat King and not Uncle Sam! But a Coalition Govt is really like a tied down bull! Only grunt and snort, but little action.

The year 2019 to my view, would be the year when India would return to Single Party rule. We would have been absolutely "FED-UP" with regional goondas and hooligans and vote one of the National Parties to power. Probably then, there is an outside chance of the Indian Govt deciding to "Attack First" and route out terrorism and initiate a full-scale war! Even that to me is VERY far-fetched!

For another 10years, you probably would see conflicts, hopefully not to the scale of 26/11. But you WONT see an Iraq or an Afghanistan.